Tropical Storm Bertha is tracking along the northern Gulf of Mexico with maximum sustained winds that reached 60 mph on Tuesday before weakening to approximately 52 mph by Wednesday morning, bringing heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and storm surge to communities from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana. The second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has triggered tropical storm warnings across four states and contributed to cascading flight disruptions that canceled more than 2,000 flights nationwide — including hundreds at New York City’s major airports.
Key Takeaways
- Tropical Storm Bertha formed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on July 20 and strengthened to 60 mph sustained winds by Tuesday evening before weakening to approximately 52 mph by Wednesday morning.
- Tropical storm warnings are in effect from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana, covering Pensacola, Mobile, Gulfport, and New Orleans.
- The National Hurricane Center projects storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normally dry ground from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama-Florida border, with rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches and isolated amounts near 6 to 8 inches.
- Bertha is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Thursday and dissipate near the Texas coast by end of week.
- Over 2,000 flights were canceled on July 21 across the United States, with NYC-area airports logging hundreds of cancellations as cascading weather patterns strained airline operations.
Where Is Tropical Storm Bertha Headed?
The National Hurricane Center’s Advisory Number 9, issued at 10:00 a.m. CDT on Tuesday, placed Bertha approximately 105 miles south-southeast of Mobile, Alabama, moving north-northwest at 6 mph. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft confirmed the storm’s strengthening to 60 mph sustained winds with higher gusts, and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 90 miles from the center. A NOAA buoy south-southeast of Pensacola recorded sustained winds of 49 mph with a gust of 54 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure stood at 995 millibars.
Bertha remains a lopsided system, with the bulk of its heaviest rainfall and strongest winds concentrated south of its center and largely offshore. The forecast track projects Bertha moving near or along the northern Gulf Coast over the next several days, turning westward through midweek. The NHC’s Wednesday morning forecast advisory showed the storm weakening further, with maximum sustained winds dropping to 45 knots and the center positioned near 29.4°N, 88.3°W — over the waters south of the Mississippi-Alabama border. Bertha is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Thursday and dissipate or become a post-tropical system by late Thursday or early Friday as it approaches the Texas coast.
What Are the Primary Threats to the Gulf Coast?
Heavy rainfall and coastal flooding represent the primary hazards. The National Hurricane Center’s rainfall outlook projects widespread totals of 2 to 4 inches along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida into southern Louisiana through Thursday, with isolated amounts reaching 6 to 8 inches in localized areas. Flash flooding is possible, particularly in urban and low-lying communities where drainage infrastructure is already under seasonal strain.
Storm surge poses a secondary but significant concern. The NHC forecasts water levels rising 2 to 4 feet above normally dry ground from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama-Florida border if the surge coincides with high tide. Additional surge of 1 to 3 feet is projected from Indian Pass, Florida, to the Aucilla River, along the Mississippi-Alabama border to the Alabama-Florida border, across Lake Pontchartrain, and from the Vermilion-Cameron parish line to the mouth of the Mississippi River. The deepest water is expected along the immediate coast, and surge-related flooding can vary significantly over short distances depending on timing relative to the tidal cycle.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect from the Bay-Gulf county line in Florida to the Terrebonne-Lafourche parish border in Louisiana. Tropical storm watches extend further west along the Louisiana coast. New Orleans is under a tropical storm warning, though major impacts are not anticipated for the city. Forecasters expect showers and gusty winds, some potentially reaching tropical-storm force, beginning Tuesday night and lasting through Wednesday into Thursday.
How Is Bertha Affecting New York City Travel?
While Bertha’s direct impacts remain confined to the Gulf Coast, the broader atmospheric pattern that accompanied its formation has contributed to cascading disruptions across the national aviation system. On July 21, more than 2,000 flights were canceled across the United States as severe thunderstorms pounded the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic corridor simultaneously. LaGuardia Airport logged 145 cancellations — roughly 27% of its scheduled flights. John F. Kennedy International Airport recorded 110 cancellations, approximately 16% of operations. Newark Liberty International Airport saw 57 cancellations, close to 10% of departures.
The Federal Aviation Administration issued ground stops at all three NYC-area airports on Tuesday afternoon as the first line of storms moved through. The disruptions came just days after a separate round of storms on July 19 had already canceled more than 1,000 flights at the same three airports, leaving aircraft and crews only partially repositioned heading into the week. American Airlines, Delta, JetBlue, United, and Southwest issued fee-free travel waivers for affected passengers, though travelers reported that alternative flights filled rapidly once the waivers went active.
Patrick Maddox, director of public safety for Okaloosa County, Florida, advised residents in Bertha’s direct path not to dismiss the storm’s threat despite its relatively modest intensity, noting that even weaker tropical systems can produce dangerous flooding in low-lying areas. Mayor Mamdani, responding to the separate but concurrent severe weather hitting New York City, urged New Yorkers to exercise caution and advised basement apartment residents to know their exits and be prepared to move to higher floors during heavy rainfall.
FAQs
Is Tropical Storm Bertha Expected To Become a Hurricane?
The National Hurricane Center does not forecast Bertha reaching hurricane strength. The storm peaked at 60 mph sustained winds on Tuesday evening and has since weakened. Forecasters project continued weakening through midweek, with Bertha declining to tropical depression status by Thursday and potentially dissipating near the Texas coast by end of week.
Which Gulf Coast Cities Are Under Tropical Storm Warnings?
Tropical storm warnings cover a stretch of coastline from the Bay-Gulf county line in Florida to the Terrebonne-Lafourche parish border in Louisiana. Cities under warnings include Pensacola and Panama City in Florida, Mobile in Alabama, Gulfport in Mississippi, and New Orleans in Louisiana. Tropical storm watches extend further west along the Louisiana coast.
How Much Rain Will Tropical Storm Bertha Produce?
The NHC projects total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern Louisiana through Thursday, with isolated totals reaching 6 to 8 inches in localized areas. Flash flooding is possible in urban and low-lying communities.
Are NYC Flights Still Being Affected?
Flight operations at JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark experienced major disruptions on July 21 due to severe thunderstorms in the Northeast, with more than 630 combined cancellations at the three airports. Airlines have issued travel waivers, but recovery timelines depend on weather clearing and crew repositioning. Travelers are advised to check directly with their airlines before heading to the airport.
Tropical Storm Bertha’s modest intensity and projected dissipation by week’s end suggest the Gulf Coast will avoid a worst-case scenario, but the storm’s slow movement and heavy rainfall potential make the next 48 hours a critical window for communities along the northern Gulf shoreline.
